A casi 20 años de la primera inversión de capital privado o private equity en México, esa industria sigue siendo un tema periférico. Fuera de algunos artículos dedicados al tema por esta publicación y algunas otras, private equity todavía es un término que pocos conocen. Aun en las universidades, los estudiantes de posgrado, por ejemplo de maestrías en negocios, generalmente no lo han escuchado.
No es casual que los nombres de los operadores de fondos sean igualmente desconocidos. En cambio, en EU revistas no especializadas, como Vanity Fair, han dedicado portadas y artículos a operadores de fondos, lo que hace accesible el tema para estudiantes, empresarios y hasta quinceañeras que buscan consejos de moda.
La industria del capital privado ha alcanzado a la cultura pop estadounidense, por ejemplo, a través de las comedias románticas del cine. En ‘Pretty Woman’, Richard Gere hace el rol de exitoso millonario que maneja un fondo de private equity. Otro caso es el de Owen Wilson, quien en la película ‘Wedding Crashers’ se hace pasar por inversionista de private equity para impresionar a las encandiladas solteras.
En México, los operadores actuales son un tanto desconocidos y tampoco se sabe quiénes han sido los protagonistas de la industria. Muy pocos miembros de la industria saben que fondos de la talla de Blackstone o Bedminster Capital Management (el brazo de private equity del inversionista George Soros) han participado activamente en el país.
Pocos recuerdan a Hicks, Muse, Tate & Furst que con un solo fondo invirtió cerca de 500 millones de dólares, de 1996 a 1999. La industria y los jugadores son poco conocidos, y casi nadie sabe cuáles son las compañías con inversiones de private equity aun cuando se trata de marcas o compañías comunes. Quizá la empresa más citada como una firma exitosa que contó con private equity es Cinemex, pero claramente no es la única.
Es posible que la falta de atención que recibe el private equity tenga que ver con la escasez de historias de éxito en las cuales una empresa de reciente creación o un emprendedor alcancen, en pocos años, valuaciones significativas que los lleven a listarse en la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores. Hay más casos de éxito de los que usualmente se conocen. Aun con una Bolsa de Valores deprimida en cuanto al número de ofertas públicas iniciales de acciones, al private equity se le pueden atribuir varias, tales como los lanzamientos de Homex, Promotora Ambiental, Famsa y Axtel, entre otras.
Quizá la industria está recibiendo la atención que se merece basada en su tamaño y no en el impacto que puede tener en la creación de empresas y el crecimiento económico.
Lo mejor, por venir
Aunque esto parecería un callejón sin salida (ni entrada) podría esperarse que la industria del private equity en México está en su etapa de formación y que lo mejor está por venir. La razón podría ser que muchos de los fondos que han entrado al país sólo recientemente están alcanzando salidas o están por hacerlo. Si éste es el caso, el buen comportamiento de la industria podría atraer nuevos fondos y nuevas inversiones. El 60% de las inversiones (en monto) se ha realizado en los últimos siete años, por lo que es posible que muchas de estas transacciones todavía no hayan alcanzado salida.
De los 96 fondos de private equity, sólo 17 han sido manejados por un operador que se podría considerar exitoso porque ha podido levantar más de un fondo. Esta idea se basa en este argumento: si un operador quiere levantar capital para el fondo siguiente, los inversionistas pedirán evidencia de los resultados anteriores y sólo invertirán si éstos son buenos. Los restantes 79 fondos no han sido exitosos o no han alcanzado a liquidar sus activos, por lo que no pueden mostrar resultados para levantar un fondo adicional.
Atrás de los 17 fondos exitosos, hay siete operadores que siguen estrategias particulares que quizá tengan un impacto en el resultado positivo de sus operaciones. Los fondos considerados exitosos, según el estudio, han invertido casi 27% del private equity en México. Los fondos que han invertido exitosamente en el país, generalmente han sido manejados por equipos locales (no desde Nueva York), han hecho mas inversiones por fondo y de menor monto (diversificación de riesgo), se han enfocado en empresas en etapas tardías por lo que también han podido tener acceso a deuda de forma más común, situación que normalmente mejora la rentabilidad de las inversiones. La transacción promedio de estos fondos parece ser de 13 millones de dólares (MDD) por inversión; los fondos invierten en 5.4 empresas un monto total de 69.7 MDD.
En la industria en general, la inversión promedio es de 13.8 MDD, los fondos invierten en promedio en 3.4 empresas, un monto total de 46.7 MDD y parecen no enfocarse en empresas en etapas tardías.
A estas alturas del partido, el economista que todos llevamos dentro probablemente ya tenga unas 14 o 15 recomendaciones de política económica para mejorar la rentabilidad de la industria del private equity en México. De forma categórica casi todas las razones se podrían agregar bajo dos definiciones: factores externos al flujo de private equity y factores internos. En los primeros hay elementos como el crecimiento económico, la actividad de la Bolsa de Valores y las tasas de interés. Entre los internos podrían estar temas como la actividad emprendedora, la cultura de negocios y hasta regulaciones enfocadas en limitar o no en dónde se invierte el dinero de los fondos de pensiones.
Parecería que el private equity en México ha recibido la atención merecida al sólo representar 0.05% del PIB. Sin embargo, la atención a esta industria podría y debería de ser mucho más seria. Para muchos economistas, la actividad emprendedora de un país es realmente el medidor más importante de la salud de una economía. El private equity es considerado, a nivel mundial, como un catalizador de crecimiento de las empresas y, por ende, de las economías, ya que su enfoque es financiar a los emprendedores en las diferentes etapas de la empresa.
Otro aspecto relevante del private equity es que podría ser un medio para que las afore mejoren su rentabilidad, siempre y cuando pudieran invertir en instrumentos que se destinarían no a deuda gubernamental o a índices accionarios extranjeros, sino a financiar el crecimiento de las empresas mexicanas a través de capital.
De todo el private equity que ha entrado a México se estima que sólo 10% viene de fuentes nacionales (principalmente Nafin). Las pensiones de los mexicanos se están usando para financiar el crecimiento del gobierno mexicano, el de las empresas mexicanas grandes que se pueden listar en la Bolsa o, en algunos casos, de empresas extranjeras a través de índices accionarios que se comercian en la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores. Por otro lado, los fondos de pensiones extranjeros que están detrás de los fondos de private equity son los que realmente creen en el crecimiento y financiamiento de las compañías mexicanas y de los emprendedores en las etapas jóvenes de las empresas.
La rentabilidad de las afore, hasta hace un año, oscilaba entre 6 y 7% nominal, mientras el private equity busca alcanzar retornos nominales brutos de 25%.
La inversión en fondos de private equity por parte de las afore no debería de ser solamente una decisión centralizada ya que necesitaría soportarse en una industria de consultores, representantes de mercadeo y otros técnicos que actualmente no existen en México, para evitar los mismo errores que las administradoras de fondos de pensiones enfrentaron en Chile en los años 90.
Parece que todavía faltan algunos años antes de que Gael García haga en una película mexicana el rol de inversionista de private equity.
Pero, sin duda, cada vez estamos más cerca de que varios de los 100 empresarios más importantes de México tengan vínculos más estrechos con la industria del private equity.
lunes, 7 de noviembre de 2011
El vuelo de pasajeros más ecológico
Para los que les gusta la aviación....
El programa Dreamliner de Boeing intenta reducir el consumo de combustible para hacer la aviación un poco más ecológica. Su secreto, los materiales con los que está construido y los motores de la firma Rolls Royce. Ahora, este avión "verde" acaba de completar su primer vuelo comercial entre las ciudades de Tokio y Hong Kong, entre Japón y China.
Desde la prehistoria el hombre ya deseaba volar. La mitología antigua ya mostraba seres y personajes que conseguían remontar el vuelo y alzarse por encima de las cabezas del resto de seres humanos, como el caso del griego Ícaro. Incluso el gran Leonardo da Vinci diseñó una especie de avión, muy lejos de las actuales aeronaves de transporte de viajeros, pero que marcaría una carrera por desarrollar un aparato fiable que volase por sus propios medios. Muchos otros como François de Rozier, Otto Lilienthal o Clèment Ader también pusieron su granito de arena en esta carrera. Sin embargo, seguro que muy pocos de ellos llegaron a pensar que sus invenciones, en el futuro supusieran un problema medioambiental.
Y es que en la actualidad, en todo el mundo, despegan y aterrizan alrededor de 100.000 vuelos con el consiguiente gasto energético y, en consecuencia, con la contaminanción atmosférica que generan. Y no solo por culpa del CO2 que emiten sus motores, sino también a nivel acústico con problemas sobre la población que habita cerca de los aeropuertos.
La forma de fabricar las piezas es otra de las clave para la disminución del peso del avión. Por ejemplo, indican desde la marca, se han eliminado 1.500 planchas de aluminio y unas 45.000 abrazaderas gracias a la fabricación del fuselaje como una sola pieza.
Otra de las características destacables de este modelo es su pequeño tamaño, lo que le hace más versátil en pequeñas distancias. Pero además, a nivel estructural, destaca el desarrollo llevado a cabo por Rolls Royce. El motor, específicamente desarrollado para este avión y llamado Trend 1.000, reduce el ruido y las vibraciones , es más eficiente, ligero y fácil de instalar en las alas del Boeing.
El innovador avión permite transportar hasta 250 pasajeros y viajará a una velocidad de unos 912 km/h.
Con este modelo la marca de aviones ha prometido un 20 por ciento menos de consumo de combustible y un 30 por ciento menos de costes de mantenimiento. A nivel sonoro indican que la reducción de la contaminación acústica supera el 50 por ciento.
Los prototipos son esenciales para desarrollos futuros y la mejora de las tecnologías. Sin embargo, en ocasiones se echa de menos este tipo de proyectos que transforman los diseños sobre el papel en una realidad palpable.
El programa Dreamliner de Boeing intenta reducir el consumo de combustible para hacer la aviación un poco más ecológica. Su secreto, los materiales con los que está construido y los motores de la firma Rolls Royce. Ahora, este avión "verde" acaba de completar su primer vuelo comercial entre las ciudades de Tokio y Hong Kong, entre Japón y China.
Desde la prehistoria el hombre ya deseaba volar. La mitología antigua ya mostraba seres y personajes que conseguían remontar el vuelo y alzarse por encima de las cabezas del resto de seres humanos, como el caso del griego Ícaro. Incluso el gran Leonardo da Vinci diseñó una especie de avión, muy lejos de las actuales aeronaves de transporte de viajeros, pero que marcaría una carrera por desarrollar un aparato fiable que volase por sus propios medios. Muchos otros como François de Rozier, Otto Lilienthal o Clèment Ader también pusieron su granito de arena en esta carrera. Sin embargo, seguro que muy pocos de ellos llegaron a pensar que sus invenciones, en el futuro supusieran un problema medioambiental.
Y es que en la actualidad, en todo el mundo, despegan y aterrizan alrededor de 100.000 vuelos con el consiguiente gasto energético y, en consecuencia, con la contaminanción atmosférica que generan. Y no solo por culpa del CO2 que emiten sus motores, sino también a nivel acústico con problemas sobre la población que habita cerca de los aeropuertos.
Aviones comerciales más ecológicos
De ahí que Boeing haya desarrollado una línea de aparatos comerciales más ecológicos. El avión, el Boeing 787 puede recorrer hasta 15.000 kilómetros sin repostar, distancia que solo completaban otros dos modelos de la marca. Al estar fabricado en gran parte con fibra de carbono (un material liviano y muy resistente) reduce su peso y consigue consumir menos combustible en vuelo. Exactamente, explican desde Boeing, "hasta un 50 por ciento de la estructura principal del 787, incluyendo fuselaje y alas, estará hecha de materiales compuestos".La forma de fabricar las piezas es otra de las clave para la disminución del peso del avión. Por ejemplo, indican desde la marca, se han eliminado 1.500 planchas de aluminio y unas 45.000 abrazaderas gracias a la fabricación del fuselaje como una sola pieza.
Otra de las características destacables de este modelo es su pequeño tamaño, lo que le hace más versátil en pequeñas distancias. Pero además, a nivel estructural, destaca el desarrollo llevado a cabo por Rolls Royce. El motor, específicamente desarrollado para este avión y llamado Trend 1.000, reduce el ruido y las vibraciones , es más eficiente, ligero y fácil de instalar en las alas del Boeing.
El innovador avión permite transportar hasta 250 pasajeros y viajará a una velocidad de unos 912 km/h.
Con este modelo la marca de aviones ha prometido un 20 por ciento menos de consumo de combustible y un 30 por ciento menos de costes de mantenimiento. A nivel sonoro indican que la reducción de la contaminación acústica supera el 50 por ciento.
Los prototipos son esenciales para desarrollos futuros y la mejora de las tecnologías. Sin embargo, en ocasiones se echa de menos este tipo de proyectos que transforman los diseños sobre el papel en una realidad palpable.
viernes, 4 de noviembre de 2011
Groupon sizzles in public debut but worries linger
Les mando este artículo sobre la acción de Groupon. Me interesó ya que es la empresa con el crecimiento más rapido jamas registrado en la historia. La compañía en 6 meses logró pasar de 0 a 500 millones de dolares en ventas. Hoy, la acción subió 30% debido a la demanda. Espero les interese....
NEW YORK (AP) -- Groupon's stock sizzled in its public debut Friday despite concerns about its accounting practices ahead of an initial public offering and doubts about the viability of its business model.
The first-day pop for the pioneer of online group discounts was largely expected, though. Not even a gain of about $4 billion in market value -- to nearly $17 billion -- could erase lingering questions about its long-term prospects.
In fact, it may have added to them.
Bigger than IPOs for Internet radio company Pandora Inc. and professional network LinkedIn Corp., Groupon's debut served as an icebreaker for a frozen IPO market.
It further sets the stage for the public debut of online game company Zynga Inc., which is expected in the next few weeks. It'll culminate next year, with the expected IPO of Facebook, one dwarfing them all.
After pricing above its expected range on Thursday, at $20, Groupon's stock rose $6.11, or 31 percent, to close Friday at $26.11. Earlier in the day, it traded as high as $31.14.
Still, analysts remain worried about the risks concerning the company, especially as the stock price increases.
"Until investors see the full profit model unfold over time, expect this stock to be highly volatile," said Kathleen Shelton Smith, principal of Renaissance Capital, which operates IPOhome.com. "The first day of trading is typically more about supply and demand. Fundamentals will take over in the long run."
Groupon makes money by sending out frequent emails to subscribers offering a chance to buy discount deals for anything from laser hair removal to weekend getaways. The company takes a cut of what people pay and gives the rest to the merchant.
Because the model is easy to replicate, it has spawned many copycats after its 2008 launch, from startups such as LivingSocial to established companies such as Google Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. (which incidentally runs its deals through LivingSocial).
Groupon has the advantage of being first. This has meant brand recognition and investor demand, as evidenced by its strong public debut.
Nonetheless, Chicago-based Groupon Inc. has faced scrutiny about its high marketing expenses, enormous employee base and the way it accounted for revenue.
Groupon splits the money it collects from customers with merchants. But it reported all of its gross billings, not just the money it gets to keep, as revenue. After federal regulators questioned it, Groupon submitted new documents in September that showed that net revenue in the first half of this year was about half of what it originally reported.
Using the new accounting method, Groupon had revenue of $1.12 billion in the first nine months of the year. But it lost $308 million because of high operating expenses. The company spent $1.18 billion on such things as marketing to acquire new subscribers and running its business. Groupon went from 37 employees in June 2009 to 10,418 as of Sept. 30 this year.
By contrast, Google had revenue of $1.35 billion and net income of $143 million in the first six months of 2004 before going public that August. Other than its most recent quarter, LinkedIn has been profitable since last year.
For some longtime IPO watchers, Groupon's ascent is reminiscent of the late 1990s tech boom -- and bust.
One reason for that is its low "float," meaning Groupon is selling just 5.5 percent of its available shares. Though not unprecedented, the amount is below that of many prominent tech companies, such as Google (7.2 percent), Amazon (12.6 percent) and LinkedIn (8.2 percent).
"The retail investors buying the stock, I don't think they were around in the 2000 dot-com bust. I don't think they have a historical perspective of what happens over time," said Francis Gaskins, president of IPOdesktop.com. "They are buying based on emotion."
There's pent-up demand not just for tech IPOs, but IPOs in general, especially from U.S. companies, said Josef Schuster, CEO and founder of IPOX Schuster, an investment firm that specializes in IPOs. And the pre-Thanksgiving offering was good timing for Groupon because it will benefit from the holiday shopping period, he added.
Still, he believes it's a risky investment in the long run.
"Groupon fits very well into a late 1990s IPO," he said, citing its low float, which helped drive up demand on opening day.
Thursday's pricing gave Groupon a market value of $12.7 billion, below only Google's among tech company IPOs. With Friday's stock price jump, Groupon's value rose to $16.58 billion.
Though critics abound, not everyone believes Groupon is a disaster waiting to happen.
"They have a real business. They can really make money. They have a really large first-mover advantage," Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter said. "The downside is that it's not hard to do what they do."
Still, he said, the fact that Google tried to buy them -- in a $6 billion deal that Groupon rejected -- instead of doing a deals business of its own should account for something (Google eventually started its own deals service called Offers). Amazon's deals service, meanwhile, are powered by LivingSocial, Groupon's smaller rival in which Amazon owns a stake. Facebook tried its hand at deals but killed it off in August after four months of testing.
Pachter sees some similarities between Google, a first-mover in the online search market, and Groupon. There have been a lot of online search copycats but Google remains king. And there are opportunities for Groupon, such as targeting its deals beyond geography, based on people's interests and demographic profiles.
Another Internet darling, professional networking service LinkedIn, saw its stock soar to $122.70 on its opening day in May after pricing at $45. It's back up now, at $82 -- a possible pattern for Groupon in the coming months.
"I don't think from today's trading we can actually say what the long-term value of the company is," Pachter said. "Let's see what they do with the cash."
NEW YORK (AP) -- Groupon's stock sizzled in its public debut Friday despite concerns about its accounting practices ahead of an initial public offering and doubts about the viability of its business model.
The first-day pop for the pioneer of online group discounts was largely expected, though. Not even a gain of about $4 billion in market value -- to nearly $17 billion -- could erase lingering questions about its long-term prospects.
In fact, it may have added to them.
Bigger than IPOs for Internet radio company Pandora Inc. and professional network LinkedIn Corp., Groupon's debut served as an icebreaker for a frozen IPO market.
It further sets the stage for the public debut of online game company Zynga Inc., which is expected in the next few weeks. It'll culminate next year, with the expected IPO of Facebook, one dwarfing them all.
After pricing above its expected range on Thursday, at $20, Groupon's stock rose $6.11, or 31 percent, to close Friday at $26.11. Earlier in the day, it traded as high as $31.14.
Still, analysts remain worried about the risks concerning the company, especially as the stock price increases.
"Until investors see the full profit model unfold over time, expect this stock to be highly volatile," said Kathleen Shelton Smith, principal of Renaissance Capital, which operates IPOhome.com. "The first day of trading is typically more about supply and demand. Fundamentals will take over in the long run."
Groupon makes money by sending out frequent emails to subscribers offering a chance to buy discount deals for anything from laser hair removal to weekend getaways. The company takes a cut of what people pay and gives the rest to the merchant.
Because the model is easy to replicate, it has spawned many copycats after its 2008 launch, from startups such as LivingSocial to established companies such as Google Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. (which incidentally runs its deals through LivingSocial).
Groupon has the advantage of being first. This has meant brand recognition and investor demand, as evidenced by its strong public debut.
Nonetheless, Chicago-based Groupon Inc. has faced scrutiny about its high marketing expenses, enormous employee base and the way it accounted for revenue.
Groupon splits the money it collects from customers with merchants. But it reported all of its gross billings, not just the money it gets to keep, as revenue. After federal regulators questioned it, Groupon submitted new documents in September that showed that net revenue in the first half of this year was about half of what it originally reported.
Using the new accounting method, Groupon had revenue of $1.12 billion in the first nine months of the year. But it lost $308 million because of high operating expenses. The company spent $1.18 billion on such things as marketing to acquire new subscribers and running its business. Groupon went from 37 employees in June 2009 to 10,418 as of Sept. 30 this year.
By contrast, Google had revenue of $1.35 billion and net income of $143 million in the first six months of 2004 before going public that August. Other than its most recent quarter, LinkedIn has been profitable since last year.
For some longtime IPO watchers, Groupon's ascent is reminiscent of the late 1990s tech boom -- and bust.
One reason for that is its low "float," meaning Groupon is selling just 5.5 percent of its available shares. Though not unprecedented, the amount is below that of many prominent tech companies, such as Google (7.2 percent), Amazon (12.6 percent) and LinkedIn (8.2 percent).
"The retail investors buying the stock, I don't think they were around in the 2000 dot-com bust. I don't think they have a historical perspective of what happens over time," said Francis Gaskins, president of IPOdesktop.com. "They are buying based on emotion."
There's pent-up demand not just for tech IPOs, but IPOs in general, especially from U.S. companies, said Josef Schuster, CEO and founder of IPOX Schuster, an investment firm that specializes in IPOs. And the pre-Thanksgiving offering was good timing for Groupon because it will benefit from the holiday shopping period, he added.
Still, he believes it's a risky investment in the long run.
"Groupon fits very well into a late 1990s IPO," he said, citing its low float, which helped drive up demand on opening day.
Thursday's pricing gave Groupon a market value of $12.7 billion, below only Google's among tech company IPOs. With Friday's stock price jump, Groupon's value rose to $16.58 billion.
Though critics abound, not everyone believes Groupon is a disaster waiting to happen.
"They have a real business. They can really make money. They have a really large first-mover advantage," Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter said. "The downside is that it's not hard to do what they do."
Still, he said, the fact that Google tried to buy them -- in a $6 billion deal that Groupon rejected -- instead of doing a deals business of its own should account for something (Google eventually started its own deals service called Offers). Amazon's deals service, meanwhile, are powered by LivingSocial, Groupon's smaller rival in which Amazon owns a stake. Facebook tried its hand at deals but killed it off in August after four months of testing.
Pachter sees some similarities between Google, a first-mover in the online search market, and Groupon. There have been a lot of online search copycats but Google remains king. And there are opportunities for Groupon, such as targeting its deals beyond geography, based on people's interests and demographic profiles.
Another Internet darling, professional networking service LinkedIn, saw its stock soar to $122.70 on its opening day in May after pricing at $45. It's back up now, at $82 -- a possible pattern for Groupon in the coming months.
"I don't think from today's trading we can actually say what the long-term value of the company is," Pachter said. "Let's see what they do with the cash."
martes, 1 de noviembre de 2011
Un juguete para grandes
Para las personas que les gusta los juguetes de otro nivel, les mando la página de internet en donde pueden encontrar videos impresionantes de cómo funciona.
http://www.jetlev-flyer.com/
http://www.jetlev-flyer.com/
A Day Made of Glass... Made possible by Corning.
Les mando este video que me pareció extremadamente interesante. Es una tecnología que aunque pienso que no falta mucho en alcanzar, aún no estamos en este nivel. Vale la pena verlo!
Saludos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38&noredirect=1
Saludos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38&noredirect=1
lunes, 31 de octubre de 2011
Términa mal Octubre en Bolsa
Les mando el siguiente artículo financiero que habla sobre el cierre en bolsa de Octubre, el mejor mes desde 1974. Me parece muy interesante ya que aún con la incertidumbre que existe hoy en día y la economía estancada, se pueden encontrar excelentes oportunidades de inversion.
October is somewhat cursed for the stock market -- the Crash of 1929, Black Monday in 1987, a slow-motion meltdown in 2008. This time, the demons made a last gasp, but Wall Street still managed to break the jinx.
Stocks had their best month in almost a decade, rising from their low point of the year in an almost uninterrupted four-week rally. The juice mostly came from Europe, which appeared to finally find a strategy for taming its debt crisis.
But the finish sure was ugly. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 276 points and finished below 12,000 on the final day of the month. It was as rough an end as it was a beginning: On the first trading day of the month, Oct. 3, the Dow lost 258.
Bank stocks were hit hard Monday. MF Global, a securities firm headed by former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, filed for bankruptcy protection. Rating agencies downgraded the company last week, worried that it holds too much European debt.
Still, even counting the Halloween scare, October 2011 will be remembered on Wall Street for a comeback that only the St. Louis Cardinals, baseball's nearly eliminated, newly crowned champions, could match.
For the month, the Dow rose more than 1,000 points. It gained 9.5 percent, its best showing since October 2002. The Standard & Poor's 500 index, the broadest major market average, rose 10.8 percent for the month, the best since December 1991.
On Oct. 3, both the Dow and the S&P closed at their lows of the year. The market had been through a brutal summer and was one bad day away from falling into bear market territory, down 20 percent from its most recent peak.
Investors were worried that the United States, with an economy growing at the slowest pace since the end of the Great Recession, was on the brink of falling back into recession.
And if the U.S. didn't tip into a new recession by itself, the market was worried that Europe would give it a push. Greece and other European nations face crushing debt, and European banks that loaned them money face big losses.
A recession in Europe would be bad news for the United States because Europe buys about 20 percent of American exports.
Someone opening a quarterly account statement at about that time might have tossed it in the garbage and been afraid to look again. But that day was to be the turning point.
Reports that European leaders were working on a debt plan began trickling out. Investors gained confidence after the leaders of France and Germany pledged to come up with a far-reaching resolution by the end of the month.
Added to the encouraging news out of Europe: stronger corporate earnings from the likes of Google and McDonald's and signs that the U.S. economy was not as bad as feared. Retail sales rose 1.1 percent in September, the biggest gain in seven months.
When European leaders finally unveiled the deal Thursday, stocks roared higher. The S&P 500 jumped 3.7 percent and was up for the year for the first time since Aug. 3, just before the U.S. government's debt lost its AAA credit rating.
"It's a rally off what was a very pessimistic view of the global economy," says Todd Henry, an emerging-market equity specialist at T. Rowe Price. "Does it have legs? I think that's yet to be seen."
Under the debt agreement, banks will take a 50 percent loss on their Greek government bonds. Europe will also add money to a financial rescue fund to protect other countries. And banks will increase their capital reserves to protect themselves.
With the October books closed, the Dow was at 11,955.01, up about 83 percent from March 2009, its lowest point after the financial meltdown. It would have to rise more than 2,200 points from here to set an all-time high.
The S&P 500 finished the month at 1,253.50, down 32 points on Monday, or 2.5 percent. The Nasdaq composite index fell 53 points for the day, or 1.9 percent, and ended October at 2,684.
Besides the Depression-heralding collapse in 1929, the crash in 1987 and the meltdown 2008, the stock market suffered through a mini-crash on Friday the 13th in October 1989 and a 554-point drop in the Dow on Oct. 27, 1997.
But the month "turned the tide" in 11 bear markets after World War II, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. And it turned out to be the best single month for the market from 1993 to 2007, according to the almanac.
Strong as it was, this October wasn't close to ranking as one of the best. After the 1929 crash, the market routinely ran up much bigger percentage gains. In July and August 1932, for example, the market gained more than 36 percent each month.
Worries about a second recession have receded somewhat. The government announced last week that the economy in July, August and September grew at an annual rate of 2.5 percent, more than twice the speed of earlier this year.
The European debt crisis is still far from fixed. One troubling sign is that borrowing costs for Italy and Spain have increased, a signal that traders remain worried about those countries' ability to pay their debts.
And there are problems closer to home. A congressional "supercommittee" has to find $1.2 trillion in deficit cuts in less than a month, and Republicans and Democrats are fighting about whether to focus on higher taxes or cuts in federal spending.
If they can't agree, investors are worried that Moody's, the prominent credit rating agency, will follow S&P and strip the United States of its top rating, or that S&P will lower its rating even further.
October is somewhat cursed for the stock market -- the Crash of 1929, Black Monday in 1987, a slow-motion meltdown in 2008. This time, the demons made a last gasp, but Wall Street still managed to break the jinx.
Stocks had their best month in almost a decade, rising from their low point of the year in an almost uninterrupted four-week rally. The juice mostly came from Europe, which appeared to finally find a strategy for taming its debt crisis.
But the finish sure was ugly. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 276 points and finished below 12,000 on the final day of the month. It was as rough an end as it was a beginning: On the first trading day of the month, Oct. 3, the Dow lost 258.
Bank stocks were hit hard Monday. MF Global, a securities firm headed by former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, filed for bankruptcy protection. Rating agencies downgraded the company last week, worried that it holds too much European debt.
Still, even counting the Halloween scare, October 2011 will be remembered on Wall Street for a comeback that only the St. Louis Cardinals, baseball's nearly eliminated, newly crowned champions, could match.
For the month, the Dow rose more than 1,000 points. It gained 9.5 percent, its best showing since October 2002. The Standard & Poor's 500 index, the broadest major market average, rose 10.8 percent for the month, the best since December 1991.
On Oct. 3, both the Dow and the S&P closed at their lows of the year. The market had been through a brutal summer and was one bad day away from falling into bear market territory, down 20 percent from its most recent peak.
Investors were worried that the United States, with an economy growing at the slowest pace since the end of the Great Recession, was on the brink of falling back into recession.
And if the U.S. didn't tip into a new recession by itself, the market was worried that Europe would give it a push. Greece and other European nations face crushing debt, and European banks that loaned them money face big losses.
A recession in Europe would be bad news for the United States because Europe buys about 20 percent of American exports.
Someone opening a quarterly account statement at about that time might have tossed it in the garbage and been afraid to look again. But that day was to be the turning point.
Reports that European leaders were working on a debt plan began trickling out. Investors gained confidence after the leaders of France and Germany pledged to come up with a far-reaching resolution by the end of the month.
Added to the encouraging news out of Europe: stronger corporate earnings from the likes of Google and McDonald's and signs that the U.S. economy was not as bad as feared. Retail sales rose 1.1 percent in September, the biggest gain in seven months.
When European leaders finally unveiled the deal Thursday, stocks roared higher. The S&P 500 jumped 3.7 percent and was up for the year for the first time since Aug. 3, just before the U.S. government's debt lost its AAA credit rating.
"It's a rally off what was a very pessimistic view of the global economy," says Todd Henry, an emerging-market equity specialist at T. Rowe Price. "Does it have legs? I think that's yet to be seen."
Under the debt agreement, banks will take a 50 percent loss on their Greek government bonds. Europe will also add money to a financial rescue fund to protect other countries. And banks will increase their capital reserves to protect themselves.
With the October books closed, the Dow was at 11,955.01, up about 83 percent from March 2009, its lowest point after the financial meltdown. It would have to rise more than 2,200 points from here to set an all-time high.
The S&P 500 finished the month at 1,253.50, down 32 points on Monday, or 2.5 percent. The Nasdaq composite index fell 53 points for the day, or 1.9 percent, and ended October at 2,684.
Besides the Depression-heralding collapse in 1929, the crash in 1987 and the meltdown 2008, the stock market suffered through a mini-crash on Friday the 13th in October 1989 and a 554-point drop in the Dow on Oct. 27, 1997.
But the month "turned the tide" in 11 bear markets after World War II, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. And it turned out to be the best single month for the market from 1993 to 2007, according to the almanac.
Strong as it was, this October wasn't close to ranking as one of the best. After the 1929 crash, the market routinely ran up much bigger percentage gains. In July and August 1932, for example, the market gained more than 36 percent each month.
Worries about a second recession have receded somewhat. The government announced last week that the economy in July, August and September grew at an annual rate of 2.5 percent, more than twice the speed of earlier this year.
The European debt crisis is still far from fixed. One troubling sign is that borrowing costs for Italy and Spain have increased, a signal that traders remain worried about those countries' ability to pay their debts.
And there are problems closer to home. A congressional "supercommittee" has to find $1.2 trillion in deficit cuts in less than a month, and Republicans and Democrats are fighting about whether to focus on higher taxes or cuts in federal spending.
If they can't agree, investors are worried that Moody's, the prominent credit rating agency, will follow S&P and strip the United States of its top rating, or that S&P will lower its rating even further.
jueves, 25 de agosto de 2011
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